Weather Forecasting

What Weather Forecasting does

HTeaO sales move with the weather — hot, clear days sell differently than cold, rainy ones. This section turns the weather forecast into a sales forecast you can plan labor and inventory around.

The 14-day forecast

The forecast projects expected sales for the next 14 days. Each day's number is built from two things:

1. The weather — temperature, cloud cover, and rain for that day.
2. The budget pace — the store's monthly budget spread across days using each day's typical share of sales (a day-of-week weight), not a flat average.

How the weather is weighted

The demand model blends the three weather inputs like this:

Cloud cover carries the most weight, then temperature, then rain.

Year-over-year (YOY) chart

The YOY chart compares this period against the same period last year so you can see whether the store is trending up or down once weather is accounted for.

Forecast accuracy panel

This panel shows how close past forecasts came to actual sales:

• MAE — Mean Absolute Error, the average size of the miss.
• AVG Δ — the average percent difference between forecast and actual.
• 1-day horizon — the forecast as it stood one day in advance, which is the most actionable version for staffing.

A lower MAE and a small AVG Δ mean the model is tracking well for your store.

Tip: Use the 14-day forecast to plan the week's labor and ordering, then lean on the Dashboard's same-day pace for last-minute adjustments.